Analysis: BSP has acquired from its grand alliance more than SP

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the largest game-changer of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was viewed as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party Alliance in Uttar-Pradesh.

The combined vote share of the BSP and the SP was 41.8% in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, compared to the 43.3% of the BJP and its ally Apna Dal (AD). Adding the 2014 vote shares of the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party would have reduced the BJP-AD tally of 73 seats to 37 seats.

The findings of the 2019 election indicate that the BSP-SP alliance predominated in the chemistry of Narendra Modi. In the 2014 polls, the BJP only lost nine seats, mainly because it succeeded in raising its voting share in 2014 by 7.2 percentage points.

BSP, which tallyed its seats from zero to 10 between 2014 and 2019, was the only benefit of the Uttar Pradesh SP-BSP Alliance.

This rise took place in Uttar Pradesh with a nearly identical voting share for the BSP. The SP stayed on the same table as the BJP and Congress as compared with 2014, and lost nine and one seats respectively.

The party has announced it will dispute the polls in Uttar Pradesh alone for 11 assembly circles. “Political coercion can not be ignored. The outcome of the Uttar Pradesh Loc Sabha elections did not promote the Samajwadi Party base vote, which is the Yadav community. Even powerful SP competitors were defeated, “BSP chairman Maywati said Tuesday in a declaration.

How credible are the allegations made by the BSP by key SP electors that did not support them in 2019? There is no way to determine whether or not a party was elected by electors from a specific caste group.

An HT assessment demonstrates that both the SP and the BSP were equally bad at maintaining their voting shares in 2014 in 2019 and that the rise in sitting for BSP could have resulted from BSP’s comparatively safe seat sharing. This is why. This is why.

At the 2019 elections, the BSP and the SP contended in Uttar Pradesh with 38 and 37 parliamentary constituencies. In the 2014 surveys, the figures were 80 and 78. Of the 38 PCs the BSP challenged, there was a 2.8 percentage point decrease in the middle shift in the alliance voting share in 2014 relative to the SP and BSP voting share.

For the 37 PCs challenged by the SP, this average shift was down by 2.1 percentage points. The median as the average helps us capture the median in a distribution and enables us to isolate end-to-end extreme values.

Results are the same when the 2019 voting power of the Grand Alliance is compared to the mixed share of the 2014 SP-BSP ballot.The voting share for 2019 was less than the cumulative percentage of the SP / BSP votes of 2014 in 25 and 27 PCs of 37 and 38 PCs challenged by the SP and the BSP.

How did BSP do better than SP in Uttar Pradesh in terms of winning seats? The seat-sharing arrangement of the two sides was one of the factors that gave BSP a greater proportion of seats where the two parties ‘ total voting share was ahead of BJP.

In 2014, in the SP and BSP combined, the BSP challenged the BSP at this Lok Sabha election in 23 out of 38 seats (60,5 percent), while in 18 out of 37 constituencies (48,6 percent) disputed the SP it was ahead of the election.

Certainly, in the 2014 alliance, BSP was also better at maintaining its seats. 39 percent of the 23 PCs were won, where the combined SP and BSP voting share was greater than that of the BJP.

This figure for the SP was only 28%. This indicates that the SP might not make the alliance more useful than the BSP. Certainly the comparison between the SP and BSP voting stocks in 2014 and 2019 does not capture Uttar Pradesh’s entire political history.

The BSP won for instance in the Saharanpur parliamentary electoral district in 2019, when in the 2014 elections the combined SP and BSP share was lower than BJP. Perhaps this win has resulted from the consolidation of the Muslim votes, which led to the Imran Masood Congress in 2019 taking a far-off third place. Similarly, Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana lost their great alliance in the elections of 2019.

These three PCs elected BJP MPs in 2014, but they were all won by the great alliance in by-polls which took place in 2018, which gave the SP and the BSP great hope.The sharp reversal in by-poll outcomes and the election in 2019 shows that the SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh is more chemistry than arithmetic.